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Ross for Ranaudo.

By Jamey Newberg | Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Is Robbie Ross Jr. a success story?

Maybe he hasn’t settled in at his ceiling, either as a starting pitcher prospect or as the bullpen weapon he proved to be as a rookie in 2012.

But the 2008 second-round pick, at least by the Wins Above Replacement metric, has been more valuable in the Major Leagues than 17 of the 25 pitchers drafted ahead of him that year.  

And more valuable than 40 of the 41 second-rounders the Rangers have selected in franchise history (with 1986 pick Roger Pavlik the lone exception).

And a pitcher who has carved out a relatively stable big league role after being ranked number 25, 7, 19, and 14 in his four years as a Rangers prospect by Baseball America, making the club as a non-roster invite in 2012 and not even needing an option his first two seasons in Texas.

He was sent to Boston yesterday, probably at a point when his trade value was its lowest since his arrival in the bigs leagues.

What about Anthony Ranaudo?  A success, or not?

Three years after declining to sign with the Rangers out of high school as their 11th round pick, he was the third of three Boston first-round picks in 2010, a largely disappointing trio that included third baseman Kolbrin Vitek and outfielder Bryce Brentz.

And he didn’t get to the big leagues until his fourth pro season, posting a 4.81 ERA in seven late-season Red Sox starts and failing to miss bats (15 strikeouts in 39.1 innings) or keep the ball in the park (10 home runs).

But he was the AA Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2013, when he went 8-4, 2.95 in 19 Portland starts (before a promotion to AAA: 3-1, 2.97 in six appearances) and did miss bats (106 punchouts in 109.2 innings) and did keep the ball in the park (nine homers).

And he was the AAA International League Pitcher of the Year in 2014, when he went 14-4, 2.61 in 24 Pawtucket starts (before getting the call to Boston in August), fanning 111 in 138 frames and yielding nine bombs.

And only six of the 18 pitchers drafted ahead of him in 2010 have been more productive Major Leaguers.

Ranaudo’s BA ranking among Red Sox prospects largely receded over his four years in the system (2, 4, 14, 11), but just three winters ago he was getting votes from BA writers as they were putting together their list of the game’s Top 100 Prospects, while Ross was being given a non-roster invite to Rangers camp. 

It’s fair to point out that that was three years ago, and Ranaudo is no longer thought of in those terms.  Early projections that the 6’7” prototype would develop into a number two starter have given way to those suggesting he’s a four at best, a reliever at worst, and without sharpening his fastball command he may be nowhere on that spectrum, at least on a contending staff.  

But you have to ask yourself this, after shedding for the moment the fact that everyone loves Robbie Ross Jr. as a really good dude: Let’s say Nick Martinez, whose big league numbers weren’t all that different from Ranaudo’s in 2014, was traded today for a left-handed middle reliever whose ERA last year was 6.20 — including 7.85 in relief — and whose opponents’ slash line was a gaudy .319/.387/.464?  

And whose bottom-line 2013 numbers weren’t nearly as shocking — Ross posted a 3.03 ERA — but he lost his edge against left-handed hitters that season, as they slashed .341/.412/.538 against him over 102 trips to the plate? 

We all love Ross, but look at this deal objectively.  In spite of a thin corps of left-handed relievers, Texas was not going to comfortably entrust Ross in 2015 with the task of coming in to get Robinson Cano or Victor Martinez or Michael Brantley out.  And even if the cutter command against righties came back a bit (they hit .336/.408/.484 off him last year), there are several righthanders in the Texas bullpen who would get the ball before Ross in big spots.

One of the casualties of the Rangers’ injury-riddled spring in 2014 is that Ross — who was groomed exclusively as a starter as a Texas minor leaguer and moved to the bullpen only when he killed it in camp in 2012 and won a roster spot — was pressed into the rotation and started the season’s third game.  That experiment went pretty well for about three weeks, then poorly after that, and on his return to the bullpen he struggled for most of the year, prompting two intervening assignments to AAA Round Rock.

Just as Texas believes it has an opportunity to clean Ranaudo up and get some value out of his mid-90s velocity/power curve combination, Boston believes it has a chance to rebuild Ross’s four-seamer that tied hitters up a couple years ago from his low plane.

And still, thousands of Red Sox fans took WEEI up on its invitation to vote in a poll on the trade, and 76 percent think Boston made a bad move trading Ranaudo for Ross.

This is one of those deals in which a couple players have flashed much more value in the past — one a couple years ago in the big leagues, the other on the farm — and as fans it’s easy to dream on those flashes and fear the possibility that things come (back) together somewhere else.  

But among the things that a franchise’s pro scouts are charged with is to target players who they believe could benefit from a change of scenery (and perhaps coaching).  From a need standpoint, a veteran left-handed reliever would seem to be more important to Texas at the moment than a fifth-starter candidate who is probably a good bet to be sent out on his second of three options to start the season — and that should weigh even more heavily when wondering whether Josh Boyd and his crew felt Ranaudo, who offers six years of club control, has the chance to give Texas more value than Ross.  

All things equal, at this snapshot in time, you take the southpaw reliever.  And that should tell us all things were not equal between Ranaudo and Ross in the Rangers’ eyes, and the club’s front office probably tilted even more heavily than Red Sox Nation in that regard.

Jeff Wilson (Fort Worth Star-Telegram) tweeted this last night: “Rangers have long fancied Anthony Ranaudo, but they also liked the value he can ultimately bring.  More value than Robbie Ross would.”

I’m trying to resist thinking about what other type of “value” that word “ultimately” could suggest, and I keep telling myself a young Nate Eovaldi, who has now been traded twice, had issues missing bats as well.

As for the Rangers bullpen, Anthony Andro (Fox Sports Southwest) notes that Jon Daniels isn’t optimistic he’ll be able to add a late-inning lefthander before camp opens in three weeks.  Free agent Neal Cotts is reportedly set to sign somewhere else.  Phil Coke and a handful of others are still out there.  Current internal candidates are Alex Claudio, Michael Kirkman (who is off the roster), and Ross Detwiler, though he’ll come to camp competing for the number five rotation spot with Ranaudo, Martinez, Nick Tepesch, and Lisalverto Bonilla, perhaps among others.

Of the 18 non-roster players currently invited to big league camp, only Kirkman pitches from the left side.  

When Ross came out of nowhere in camp to win a job in 2012, four years out of high school, he was coming off a season in which he pitched 123.1 innings for High A Myrtle Beach and 38 frames for AA Frisco, almost all as a starter.

Lefthander Andrew Faulkner in 2014: 104 innings for Myrtle Beach, 30.2 for Frisco, almost all as a starter.  He’s now four years out of high school.  

Ross in that final year on the farm, per nine innings: 7.5 hits, 0.3 homers, 1.8 walks, 7.5 strikeouts.

Faulkner in 2014, per nine innings: 7.6 hits, 0.3 homers, 3.0 walks, 8.9 strikeouts.

And there have been suggestions (see your 2015 Bound Edition) that Faulkner, who has a little funk in his delivery, could end up as a power reliever who works late in games.

The lanky Faulkner and the stocky Ross don’t necessarily profile similarly on the mound, but the Ross example at least suggests the Rangers might have a taste for pushing one of their better prospects to see if he might be as suited for a role right now as anyone they could go spend free agent dollars on, or trade for.

Texas gave non-roster invites last week to pitchers Chi Chi Gonzalez, Alec Asher, and Keone Kela, third baseman Joey Gallo, catcher Pat Cantwell, and outfielder Jared Hoying.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see Faulkner get a late invite, especially in light of the new absence of Ross.

It’s probably fair to consider Ross and Ranaudo disappointments to a point, given the promise they once flashed.  But the job of Rangers and Red Sox scouts, and the General Managers they report to, is to evaluate players not on how high they were drafted, or how they pitched three years ago, but on how they might fit the current picture, and what there might be worth dreaming on down the road.

Two years ago, the idea that Texas would trade Robbie Ross Jr. at age 25 for a fifth starter candidate who’s a good bet to spend the better part of a third year in AAA would have been as preposterous as the thought that Boston would trade former first-rounder Anthony Ranaudo, coming off consecutive Pitcher of the Year seasons at the AA and AAA levels, in exchange for a middle reliever who just posted a 6.20 ERA and allowed an .851 OPS and is a lefthander who historically doesn’t get lefties out.

That’s a lot of words devoted to a trade of two players of that profile, but good old-fashioned baseball trades that aren’t made because of money don’t always involve core players.  And on the Rangers’ end, when it’s a trade that not only isn’t made for need but actually contradicts what the roster appears to be in need of, the fascination level kicks up another notch and makes you wonder which team’s scouts will feel better about the recommendation another year or two down the road.