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X factors: The Rangers trade for Yovani Gallardo.

By Jamey Newberg | Wednesday, January 21, 2015

There’s no right or wrong answer:

You can possibly have four years of Cole Hamels, plus Luis Sardinas, Corey Knebel, and Marcos Diplan.

Or you can definitely have one year of Yovani Gallardo, plus Jorge Alfaro, Nomar Mazara, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Andrew Faulkner, Jose Leclerc, a supplemental first-round draft pick in 2016, and maybe another $5 million to use between now and spring training.

Or you can probably have five years of Yovani Gallardo at, say, $58 million, plus Jorge Alfaro, Nomar Mazara, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Andrew Faulkner, Jose Leclerc, and maybe another $5 million to use between now and spring training.

Or you can count on having four months of Yovani Gallardo, plus Jorge Alfaro, Nomar Mazara, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Andrew Faulkner, Jose Leclerc, two frontline prospects from a contender in July, and maybe another $5 million to use between now and spring training.

Or you can have a choice between the previous three options, deferred for about six months.

Yovani Gallardo is not the Triple Word Score.

But you also didn’t have to play the “X.”

And even if you would have chosen Door Number One above, there’s a good chance that either Alfaro-Mazara-Gonzalez-Faulkner-Leclerc isn’t enough to get it done, Philadelphia doesn’t put in the kind of monster cash necessary to draw Hamels down to a $15 million AAV, or both.

Here’s the thing: Gallardo, the Rangers’ big player acquisition for the winter, isn’t an ace, and that’s OK.  The idea of going into a season with Gallardo, Colby Lewis, and a competition between Ross Detwiler, Nick Tepesch, Nick Martinez, and Lisalverto Bonilla at your 3-4-5 spots, as opposed to Lewis and a pair of the others, is a pretty big deal.

At relatively little cost, in dollars or player assets.

Brandon McCarthy (age 31) signed with a large market team this winter for four years and $48 million.  Ervin Santana (age 32) signed with a small market team this winter for four years and $55 million.  Francisco Liriano (age 31) reupped with a small market team this winter for three years and $39 million.

That’s the tier Gallardo probably belongs in — a veteran number three starter in a contending rotation — and with the Milwaukee subsidy the Rangers are into the 28-year-old for just one year and $10 million.

That’s what the Dodgers gave last month to Brett Anderson, whose laundry list of injuries has limited him to 83.1, 35.0, 44.2, and 43.1 innings the last four seasons.  In six big league seasons, Anderson has never logged 180 innings.

Gallardo, on the other hand, has never thrown fewer than 180 innings over those same six seasons.

Texas will have the option a year from now to see if the Fort Worth resident will take a McCarthy/Santana/Liriano-level deal, or to recoup a supplemental 2016 first-round draft pick (assuming he’s healthy enough in 2015 to justify a qualifying offer) if he signs somewhere else.  Or — the option the Rangers don’t want to think about — to trade him in July for something on the level of the Sardinas-Diplan-Knebel package they just gave up to get him, if not more, should the first 100 games of the season go south.

The market could have several frontline rental starters available in July, but if not, and if Gallardo is pitching well and getting deep into games, and if Texas is out of the race, consider that the trio of players the Rangers are sending the Brewers for one year of Gallardo is unquestionably inferior in a snapshot to the four the club sent the Cubs in 2013 for two months of Matt Garza.  There’s no C.J. Edwards in this deal.  Players viewed as potential difference-makers fetch a lot in July, and if Gallardo is riding a hot streak (like Garza was two summers ago) and the Rangers are open to moving on from him, it’s a good bet they’ll end up with more for Gallardo than they gave up to get him.

But that’s the dim view.  Chances are better, at least we hope, that the Rangers are on the buyer’s end of things in July, calling on Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke and David Price and Cliff Lee and Jordan Zimmermann and Jeff Samardzija and Hisashi Iwakuma and Mat Latos and Rick Porcello and Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy, seeking a two-month boost with hopes that it turns into three, assuming some of those free-agents-to-be are pitching for teams which by that time are looking to 2016.

Would you rather have Hamels than Gallardo?  Of course.  But whether or not the Rangers and Phillies were able to get close on agreeing what players it would take to make a trade, both local and national reports indicate the money was a thornier issue, as Hamels is guaranteed $96 million over the next four years (and as much as $114 million over five years if he meets workload triggers) and Philadelphia apparently isn’t all that motivated to turn its $24 million-AAV ace into something closer to two-thirds of that for interested teams.

Thad Levine talked on MLB Network Radio yesterday about a group of prospects that the Rangers don’t view as untouchable but at the same time really don’t want to touch, not just because they’re the kind of players organizations like to dream on, but because when they do arrive they will be making close to minimum wage for three years apiece, which is what allowed the front office to convince ownership to invest big on Adrian Beltre and Yu Darvish and Shin-Soo Choo, and to extend Derek Holland and Matt Harrison and Perez, and to trade for Prince Fielder.

And Gallardo.

That top tier Levine spoke of probably consists of Alfaro, Joey Gallo, Mazara, Gonzalez, and Jake Thompson.  It’s almost a lock two of those guys are no longer Rangers if Hamels is one.  And Hamels-to-Texas probably also slams the door on any idea of the Rangers signing Darvish’s next contract.

Again, love Hamels.

But I’m more than OK with Door Number Two, Three, or Four.

Not only did this deal with Milwaukee not cut into the top tier of the Rangers’ farm system, it arguably left the second tier (Luke Jackson, Nick Williams, Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Rua?) intact as well.  For all the things that profile Gallardo as less than a number one starter, I was still figuring that Jackson or Williams or Brinson would have been in this trade.

As Jeff Passan (Yahoo! Sports) put it: “Rangers’ calculus is simple: Don’t have to give up a premium prospect and get a solid starter to fortify [a] rotation that needs fortification.”

Ben Badler (Baseball America): “The Rangers took Joakim Soria, Luis Sardinas, and Marcos Diplan, and turned them into Yovani Gallardo and Jake Thompson.  I’d call that a win.”

That doesn’t even account for the $4 million coming back to Texas, which is more than it cost the franchise to sign Sardinas ($1.2 million) plus Diplan ($1.3 million) as international amateurs.

And then there’s Dave Cameron (FanGraphs), who offered this: “I think the Reds got more for Alfredo Simon than the Brewers [got] for Yovani Gallardo, which is weird.”

It turns out, according to Tom Haudricourt (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel), that the hold-up on the announcement of the deal that lasted nearly a day was to give Brewers doctors time to review the medicals on Knebel, who finished the season sidelined with a slight ulnar collateral ligament tear in his elbow.  (Surgery was not needed.)

It still shocks me that Detroit traded Thompson alone for Soria in July — and was willing to chip Knebel in as well.

Knebel will pitch late in games in the big leagues, possibly as soon as this year, but Texas had some depth there, and like Tanner Scheppers, he’s a power pitcher who now has a red flag health-wise.  Especially when he hasn’t established himself in the big leagues, that’s a player you don’t hesitate to deal in a trade like this.

Neither is Sardinas, fourth on the Rangers’ depth chart in the middle infield and with questions about the bat holding up that will persist (along with “motor” concerns that may not).  (Cameron: “Sardinas is one of those prospects that I don’t get.  Track record says he can’t hit.”)  He’s probably a starter on an average team but a utility infielder on a contender, and the type of infielder teams will always spend winters wondering if they can find a way to upgrade on.

(And while Knebel has been traded twice in a few months, there’s apparently a real chance that Sardinas gets traded twice in a few days, as Bob Nightengale [USA Today] reports that the Brewers could flip the 21-year-old to San Diego.)

As for Diplan, by many accounts the top pitcher in 2013’s international J2 class, he’s the closest thing to Edwards in this deal.  But at age 18, he has yet to even pitch a game stateside, and there’s not a ton of projection in his wiry 5’10” frame.  Still, he toyed with Dominican Summer League competition in 2014, limiting his mostly teenaged opposition to 32 hits in 64.1 innings while striking out nearly a batter per inning (though he did lead the DSL in walks, putting five per nine on with free passes).

He could be a starter.  He could be a power reliever.  He could be Edwards.  He could be Jovanny Cedeno.

Diplan’s a lottery ticket, and Doug Melvin was smart to roll the dice on at least one high-ceiling prospect (albeit with a low floor) in this deal — think Engel Beltre in the Rangers’ Eric Gagne trade.

For what it’s worth, I had Diplan as the Rangers’ number 13 prospect and Knebel at 19.  If Sardinas still had rookie status, I probably would have slotted him around 15.  (Baseball America had them, respectively, at 22, 17, and 7.)  They simply weren’t core guys in the Rangers’ deep system, and to add a reliable, durable veteran like Gallardo without messing with the prospect core is a move that, at least from that measure, it’s hard to find fault with.

“This deal was possible because of the depth in our system,” Jon Daniels told reporters on Monday.  “We don’t feel like this depletes our system, and it addresses our Major League needs.”

From the Brewers’ standpoint, Haudricourt argues, the deal is less about the prospects added than it is about the salary ditched.  “Rather than focusing on who’s coming from Texas,” he writes, “Brewers fans should focus on [the] fact [the] team decided [it] needed payroll flexibility to do whatever.”  Speculation ranges from an effort to go after free agent James Shields (which would cost them their first-round pick, 16th overall) or to trade for the Wisconsin native Zimmermann (which would cost them a whole lot more).

And interestingly, the Brewers picked up their option on Gallardo two months ago.  Had they not done so, they could have tendered a qualifying offer and recouped a supplemental first-rounder when Gallardo signed elsewhere this winter — and not been out the $4 million they are sending Texas to help pay his 2015 salary.  Was it worth a supplemental first (and the associated bonus pool money) plus $4 million to pick up Sardinas, Knebel, and Diplan?  Not sure.

You have to wonder whether the Brewers exercised that option on Gallardo with the primary objective of trading him.  Levine said in his radio interview Tuesday that the clubs had discussed the righthander throughout the off-season, and with both Milwaukee and Texas done September 28, it’s likely they talked about Gallardo before the Brewers made their decision on October 30.  Levine said talks gathered momentum at the Winter Meetings, and heated up heading into the weekend.

It would stand to reason that Mike Maddux, who had Gallardo his first two years in the big leagues, and Fielder, who was his teammate for five years, were asked to weigh in on Gallardo, but Jeff Banister may have pounded his fist on the table as forcefully as anyone.  The last three seasons, six of Gallardo’s 12 best pitching performances (from a Bill James “Game Score” measure) came against Pittsburgh, including a pair of seven-inning, scoreless efforts in 2014 (a 7-4-0-0-1-8 start in June and a 7-5-0-0-1-11 gem in his penultimate start of the season).  Gallardo fired a 7-4-1-1-0-14 at the Pirates in July of 2012 as well.  Banister has seen him at his best.  A lot.

(Banister’s also seen Gallardo blast two of his career 12 home runs, but didn’t see his April 8, 2009 bomb off Randy Johnson — when he became the only pitcher to ever take Johnson deep.)

Overall, Gallardo’s 2014 was basically in line with the rest of his career in terms of his hittability and homer-proneness, but his strikeouts (and walks) were down and his groundball-to-flyball ratio was a career best (as was his ERA, less meaningfully).  The fact is his strikeout rate has ticked down three straight years, while his groundball rate has ticked up — a plus for any pitcher, but in the case of one working in front of this infield, it can be a tremendous weapon.  Gallardo’s a different pitcher from what he was several years ago, but he’s maintained a level of effectiveness with fastball command and an “equalizer” curve (Levine’s description), and he’s continued to chew up innings, even if left to compete with diminished stuff.

Gallardo was better the third time through a lineup in 2014 than he was the second time through — in 2012 he was actually better the third time through than the second time through, and better the second time through than the first — in high contrast to a young pitcher like Tepesch, whose tremendous issues when facing hitters a third time have not only limited his effectiveness in his two big league seasons.  It puts a tremendous strain on a pitching staff when the bullpen starts to stir in the fifth inning every fifth day.

No knock against Tepesch, but there are a lot of veteran players returning to health in 2015 and Texas is justifiably in a mood to contend.  Gallardo stands to give you a few more outs each time he takes the ball.  Plugging him into the rotation in place, effectively, of one of the Detwiler-Tepesch-Martinez-Bonilla candidates, is going to relieve pressure on the pen — and on the franchise’s young starters, both those fighting for Opening Day jobs and those like Gonzalez, Thompson, Faulkner, Jerad Eickhoff, and Alec Asher, who don’t need to be pushed.

Gallardo lengthens the rotation and has the chance to help preserve the bullpen.  He’s a hometown kid (on the right side of 30) that the club can develop a relationship with as both sides evaluate whether to make this more than a one-year fling.  He’s been a model of durability, a competitor, a guy who (as Banister puts it) knows how to win — which has nothing to do with the statistical definition.

Yovani Gallardo is not Cole Hamels.  His streak of five straight Opening Day starts is going to be snapped in 75 days.

But he’s not coming here to be Cole Hamels.  And he isn’t costing Cole Hamels money, or a Cole Hamels fortune in prospects.

He’s not going to be teammates with Luis Sardinas or Corey Knebel or Marcos Diplan, at least this year, but he might be pitching to Jorge Alfaro one day, maybe late in 2015 or, if he decides he wants to stay home and pitch for Texas a long time, and the Rangers want the same, maybe for many years to come.  He might be long-term teammates with Nomar Mazara, and a mentor to Chi Chi Gonzalez and Andrew Faulkner, and maybe Jeff Banister will take the ball from him in the eighth inning and hand it to Jose Leclerc more than once.

Those guys will all be in Surprise with Gallardo in about a month, along with Jake Thompson and Joey Gallo and Luke Jackson and Lewis Brinson and Nick Williams.

I’m not a guy who cringes at the thought of trading a prospect.  And Hamels would have been a fantastic addition to this (or any) baseball team.

But I’m not confident the Phillies are going to move Hamels at all, and if I’m wrong about that I’m not sure my idea of what it might take isn’t light.  More importantly, betting on a Hamels deal coming together and sitting out on other opportunities as a result isn’t Jon Daniels’s style, thankfully.

Daniels made the 2015 Rangers team better.  Maybe significantly so, because the presence of Gallardo behind Darvish and Holland pushes three other starter candidates down a slot and stands to reduce the load on the bullpen as well.

Daniels also made the next move, whatever it is and whenever it may present itself, more practicable.

Yovani Gallardo is a Texas Ranger.

The Triple Word Score is still out there.

And Daniels hasn’t yet played the “X.”